The export of steel pipes is one of the important channels for the consumption of steel pipes. In the past ten years, the export volume of steel pipes accounted for about 8% -10% of the total steel pipe demand. Affected by global public health events, domestic and foreign demand has slowed to a certain extent. The increase in the export tax rebate rate for some steel pipe varieties provided strong support for steel pipe exports. Under this situation, what is the export trend of steel pipes this year? Permanent Steel Manufacturing Co.,Ltd(www.permanentsteel.com) analyzes for you.

In the past decade, the export volume of steel pipes increased first and then decreased.

It can be seen from the changes in steel pipe export data from 2011 to 2019 that the overall export volume of steel pipes in the past decade has shown a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. Among them, the highest point appeared in 2014, and the export volume of steel pipes was 93.8 million tons, and the second highest point was in 2015, the export volume of steel pipes was 9.26 million tons. The main reason for the analysis is that from 2014 to 2015, domestic steel pipes were constrained by the overall weak domestic steel environment, prices continued to fall, and the export profitability was significantly higher than domestic, so the export volume increased significantly. And then supply it in China driven by the reform of the side, the domestic steel environment has improved, and the prices of steel pipes have bottomed up. However, foreign economic growth has continued to slow down and demand has weakened. Therefore, the export volume of steel pipes has declined. The low export volume occurred in 2018, with steel pipe exports of 8.13 million tons. In 2019, the export volume of steel pipes increased slightly to 8.308 million tons.

In terms of varieties, the export trends of seamless steel pipes and welded pipes in the past ten years are basically the same. However, it should be noted that in 2019, the export volume of welded pipes in 2019 is basically the same as that in 2018, while the export volume of seamless pipes has increased by 5.82% to 4.35 million tons. The main reason for the analysis is that in the past two years, domestic seamless pipes have been replaced by upstream extrusion and welded steel pipes in some fields. The prices are weak, and the companies are basically on the verge of profit and loss. In 2019, foreign crude oil demand is good, and the average export price is as high as 8600 yuan / ton. Domestic prices are 30% -35% higher, so companies are more willing to export.

According to the situation of steel pipe exporting countries, the cumulative export volume of the top five exporters of seamless steel pipes in 2019 was 1,453,100 tons, accounting for 33.4% of the seamless steel pipe exports. The cumulative export volume of the top five welded pipe exporting countries was 1.0724 million tons, accounting for 27% of the welded pipe export. Judging from the impact of public events, there is no obvious spread and proliferation in these countries, and the economy has not been significantly affected, so the number of steel pipes exported to these countries may be less affected. However, it should be noted that the United States and other countries also rank in the forefront of domestic steel pipe imports. Therefore, the overall export volume of steel pipes will shrink.

From the perspective of the export varieties of steel pipes, whether it is seamless steel pipes or welded pipes, the most exported varieties are line pipes, which are mainly used for transportation of oil and natural gas pipelines. Among them, seamless pipe line pipe accounts for 48.13% of the entire seamless pipe export varieties. Welded pipe line pipe accounts for 32.31% of the total welded pipe export varieties. Affected by public health incidents this year, panic in the peripheral capital markets has intensified and oil prices have dropped significantly. Recently, OPEC has reached the largest oil production reduction agreement in history with the world ’s largest oil producers, mainly Russia and the United States, reducing global oil supply by 20%. The reduction in global oil supply will cause Demand is reduced, which in turn affects the export volume of domestic steel pipes. Based on this calculation, the export volume of steel pipes may be reduced by 600,000-700,000 tons.

On the whole, affected by public events this year, domestic and foreign economies have been affected to a certain extent, so the export volume of steel pipes may be reduced compared with this year. However, it should be noted that since March 20 this year, the state has increased the export tax rebate rate of some steel pipe products from 10% to 13%, which has a certain boost to exports and offsets some of the reduction in export volume due to public events. Therefore, it is estimated that the export volume of steel pipes in 2020 will be 7.9-8.1 million tons. From the perspective of exporting countries, the export volume of the major Asian exporting countries may not change much or decrease slightly, and some other European countries may decrease more. From the perspective of export varieties, the export volume of line pipes may decrease.